New Science of Online Advertising - The Dopplr Effect

A recent comScore report showed a decline in the number of consumer clicks on Google search ads during January. They released data showing a 7% decline in the times U.S. consumers clicked on ads appearing with Google search results in January vs. December. There was a 7% decline in December 07 vs. November 07. Part of this might be attributed to January being a slow consumer spending month after the holidays. Nevertheless, Google's stock took a hit on the report (hint - don't take the bait!). The article tries to draw a correlation between the number of ad-clicks and overall consumer behavior. I do not believe the much ballyhooed "consumer slowdown" has contributed to the decrease in click-throughs. This is very simple in my opinion. People are tuning out these search result ads. Good search engine marketing (SEM) stems from having a good balance between paid SEM and organic search engine optimization. In SEO terms, the Golden Triangle is the top left area of search engine results that is considered by usability experts to have the highest click-heat where over 45% of real clicks occur. New players are emerging that will lower the value of traditional online advertising too. Companies like Phorm, Frontporch, NebuAd, Adzilla and Project Rialto are selling new tools to ISP's that will enable them to track users and push them context-specific ads. This approach (behavioral targeting - ever heard of cookies?) undercuts traditional online publishers. Now, the ISPs can sell advertisers direct access to the same users via a private unique user identifier that protects their identity. Come to think of it, the definition of ISPs will change too as the FCC opens up more competition over the Internet from incumbent service providers. Facebook's Beacon service and sites like Dopplr where you can log your travel plans will become more prevalent. Facebook has proven users want more granularity of control, not less. In your face billboards will become less effective over time I'm afraid.